Hot Hot Heat, QB Edition: 5 Burning Questions
Fantasy Dingo
Didn’t The Dingo tell you to get out of the kitchen if you couldn’t handle the GD heat? Just for you, here are five burning questions pulled from the fire I lit under a bubbling cauldron of QB bobble heads in a dark, dank corner of the Dingo Den.
Q: Peyton Manning: fine wine, washed up, or same old old same?
I had a good chat with Cooper Manning this week over a plate of curly fries at Archie’s, down at Harrah’s New Orleans (great spot for a draft if you can rope in eight extra fans from the bar to meet the 20-person minimum to book a room - worth it, trust me). I asked Cooper how the old dog was holding up. Nah, not ya dad, Coop—Peytie Pie! Word from the Manning camp is that big bro is moving better than ever this pre-season. He’s looking and feeling fresh, and with the bulk of his receiving corps back (minus Eric “The Pony” Decker), is set for another epic fantasy season.
But just how epic? In The Dingo’s world, he’s worth a pick in the early to mid-second round—no higher. A tough early schedule (Colts, Chiefs, then away to Seattle in the first three weeks) doesn’t give the Denver O a lot of time to settle, while tough mid-season games away at the Pats and Rams make for a rougher schedule than last year. I also worry about the inevitable regression after last year’s super season—even if Manning passed for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, it would be enough of a downturn from last year to disappoint fans who took him in the first round. So sit back and bide your time—there are plenty of QBs to go around.
Q: Does Colin Kaepernick outperform Russell Wilson at the fantasy table this year?
Or do the stout defenses of the NFC West render both useless when it comes to fantasy value? Both are currently going in the early-to-middle stage of the 11th round, according to Yahoo ADP. They are both 100% drafted in Yahoo leagues, so they hold value and interest in owners’ minds. They both love to run—Wilson racked up 539 rushing yards last year, at an average of 5.6 YPC, while Kaepernick rushed for about the same (524 yards, 5.7 YPC).
But is either destined for a boost into the upper echelon of QBs this year? Kaepernick started last season on fire, looking like The Truth, passing for 412 yards and 3 TDs against Green Bay. The next week, he cooled right off against the Seahawks, throwing for 3 picks and no TDs in a route. It had to dent the guy’s confidence: he threw for 150 yards and no TDs against the Colts the following week, then his numbers struggled to really get going despite the 49ers winning the next five games in a row.
The takeaway? Kaepernick is a confidence player—we saw that in the previous season when he took over from Alex Smith. In 2014, the Niners get started against the Cowboys (a Romo shootout!), play the Bears at home, then take on what I have rated as a declining Cardinals team and the high-tempo Eagles. I think a fantasy-sympathetic schedule like that could get Kap fired up to get in the zone for a top-tier season.
Russ on the other hand? Many pundits have noted that the team is too run-heavy for him to have too many breakout weeks (in 2013, he passed for three or more TDs just twice, against Jacksonville and New Orleans). And while his season rushing yards last year mirrored his rival in San Francisco, he consistently rushed more often than Kaepernick in the early part of last season, and it paid dividends: he rushed an average of 49 yards a game in the first six weeks, meaning an extra 5 point bump for owners. The problem is he rarely runs at the goal line - he ran in just one TD last year, as opposed to Kaepernick’s four.
The end message? Kaepernick represents good value in the 11th Round. Wilson is solidified somewhere between a solid QB1 and a great value QB2, and therefore is rated too highly in his current ADP of the 11th round. He’s a classic homer/Superbowl champion pick, and should not be treated as someone whose fantasy value could somehow explode. Of the two QBs, Kaepernick is the guy to take a flyer on.
Q: Philip Rivers is a top 5 QB now? SINCE WHEN??
SINCE NOW. In Yahoo Drafts, Phil is the fifteenth QB off the board, late in the 11th Round. 15th!! What the H, Yahoo users? Big Phil ranked sixth in fantasy points last year for QBs, throwing for almost 4,500 yards and 32 TDs. He also looked damn good doing it, putting up just 11 picks, which puts him ahead of luminaries like Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Chad Henne (lolz! Just checking you’re still paying attention! Chad isn’t a luminary, he couldn’t light up his own locker).
Another thing going for Phil is San Diego’s depth this year. Keenan Allen will look to improve on a stellar rookie year, Eddie Royal is no slouch, and they’ve got Danny “WOODHEAD” Woodhead, my favorite player of all time and a true lover of the Rivers of Dreams Goal Line Dink and Dunk. Maybe even Ryan “Stink” Mathews will manage to not do too much damage to the team’s rushing stats. Phil is the truth, he’s top 5 value with a bottom 5 price tag. Snap him up tomorrow.
Q: Is Jay Cutler for real, or is he a thorn amongst roses?
If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there to hear, does it make a sound? Or, more importantly, does Jay Cutler harvest the tree for those mushrooms that grow on the side of the trunk that gets less sun so that he can actually stay healthy this year?
A huge chunk of your fantasy season rests on injury. So when I read stories about how Jay is set for a breakout season, I think to myself, come on, pundits—short memory, much? The Cutler Scenario is a classic case of inflated expectations thanks to the thick, warm hue cast by his surrounding assets. Do you like the look of Forte, Marshall, and Alshon Jeffrey this year? Great. Draft those guys! They’re good! They perform regardless of who is throwing or handing off the pigskin (and often perform better when it’s not Cutler).
The main stat you need to remember from last year is this one: out of eleven games, Jay managed just three without throwing at least one pick. He threw two in two games, and three fine interceptions in one memorable trip to Ford Field against that IMPOSING Detroit D (that’s a joke—they’re shit!). That’s nothing compared to 2011 though, when he threw 16 picks to 23 TDs. Or 2009, when he threw 26 stellar interceptions against 27 average touchdowns. Have I made my point? The Cutler Scenario is a disaster waiting to happen. Don’t become a statistic.
Q: What would happened if you drafted the entire Detroit Lions, helmed by Fatty Stafford?
WOW. LOVE THE OUT OF THE BOX STRATEGY, LOVE THE AMBITION.
Some of you who’ve listened to me drone on and on this last year will have been bored by this strategy I deployed in a league of online strangers last year (which, let’s be real, may as well just be an extended mock, seeing as literally nothing at stake). I drafted the full Denver Broncos team—Peytie Pie, Knowshon, Montee, Demaryius, Wes, Eric, Julius, Joel Dreessen…hell, I even grabbed Trindon Holliday! The only one I missed was Matt Prater, because I effed up in the draft and auto drafters started taking kickers in the 9th round and fucking STEVE wouldn’t trade him to me (shoutout to Steve if you’re listening—hey, fuck you!).
The result? The Denver Broncos (Fantasy Team) went 12-2 and lost in the final! The real life Broncos had a rare down game, against the Chargers I believe, which is the tough part of this strategy—you’re all-in, and if the guys have a bad day and you’re up shit creek. But there are some real advantages to this method, and a Stafford-led Lions might be just the team to try it with. Some things to like about One In All In:
- You only have to watch one game each week. Hey, it’s not for me, but some people like things to be easily contained. There’s also something super exciting about watching your score go up that quickly, too—you’re on a drive downfield and your numbers are ticking up every play.
- It pisses other league members off. They all had their eyes on Wes Welker in the fourth round, maybe even backup TE Joel Dreesen as a flyer in the 14th. Suddenly you’re grabbing all their targets one round early, and they’re panicking and taking Anquan Boldin in the Fifth and Chris Ivory anywhere. Hilarious!
- You eradicate the possibility of cheering against yourself. Own Peyton Manning but going against the guy who has Julius Thomas? Suddenly his TD ended up leaving a sour taste in your mouth—it’s somehow even worse than him not throwing one at all. With the One In All In strategy, you dodge this problem altogether.
So which teams make sense this year for this far-out style of play? Denver would certainly be a candidate, as would the Eagles, but I kind of like Detroit, for a couple of reasons. You know Stafford is going to be slinging the pigskin like a maniac (29 TDs felt low last year, he could break 35 and 5,000 yards this year with a second quality receiver now on the roster). Johnson is the #1 receiver in the game, and Golden Tate is ready to make the step up (will he wear Google Glass on the field? SHOULD he?? Probably a matter for a separate column). Eric Ebron should see targets. And you could rush with both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, and not feel pissed when one vultured the other’s yards and touchdowns. WR3 provides a bit of a conundrum, but maybe you stash Ogletree in case he comes on and grab someone from a different team later down in the draft, after you’ve taken the Detroit D (YIKES, I SEE YOU’RE TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY) and Nate Freese, if the rookie does indeed turn out to be their kicker.
Look, I’m not saying you HAVE TO DO IT. I’m just saying, it could be fun! Like experimenting in college, keep it loose and try to stay friends after it’s all over.